The leadership of the National Union of Metalworkers of SA wants mines nationalised and cooperatives established as a way of dealing with poverty. After a meeting of its national executive committee (NEC) on Sunday, Numsa said that nationalising the country's mineral wealth was the only way to eradicate poverty.

"The NEC welcomed and appreciated a report of a study tour that was undertaken in January 2011 to study the experiences of nationalisation of state-owned mining companies in Bolivia and Chile," Numsa said. "It is evident that if we are to eradicate poverty, the state must take charge of our mineral wealth.

"The new growth path must deal with nationalisation and the establishment of cooperatives must be at the centre of a new redistributive economic framework," it said. The union called on the government to disclose whether any previous administration had entered into any agreement with other countries wherein South Africa undertook not to nationalise strategic entities.

"The Numsa NEC took a view that the levels of unemployment, poverty and inequalities have reached alarming levels and the issue of joblessness constitutes a national crisis and indeed a ticking time bomb," the union said.

It expected Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, in his Budget, to lay a solid ground for further cutting of interest rate, bringing back of capital controls and taking "whatever measures" necessary to weaken the rand.

"The economy in key sectors could collapse if these matters are not addressed," the union said.

"We are more convinced that the current influx of imports are continuing to haemorrhage jobs and continue to worsen the deindustrialisation that has taken place in the last 16 years in our country."

Numsa said its NEC remained convinced that the SA Communist Party was the only hope for the future socialist Republic of South Africa as it "would put the working class at the centre of economic emancipation".

"Cosatu and the SACP leadership should hasten to iron out the differences on tactics and strategy that have emerged amongst these socialist formations in the alliance," Numsa said.

The union said its NEC wanted labour law amendments to include the banning of labour brokers, even if this meant amending the constitution, and that white females be excluded as a designated group in terms of employment equity.

WERNER SWART

THE CEO of the Estate Agency Affairs Board (EAAB) has been suspended days after ordering an investigation into another industry heavyweight.

The axe fell on Nomonde Mapetla after she initiated a probe into Lew Geffen Sotheby’s International Realty.

Mapetla is credited with launching a clean up the multibillion-rand industry, said to be dominated by whites.

This has resulted in major players such as Wendy Machanik, Seeff Properties and Wakefields facing internal and criminal charges.

Although the organisation tried to keep the move under wraps, it has been established that:

•Mapetla was served with a letter of suspension on Thursday;

•No reasons for the suspension were given and staff were told she had been placed on special leave for four weeks; and

•An investigation into her conduct will only now be launched.

Mapetla and EAAB chairman Thami Bolani would not comment yesterday, but insiders claim Mapetla’s “gung-ho approach to investigating the big names in the industry” may have played a role.

It is also understood that staff at the EAAB have lodged complaints about her — although the details remain unclear.

The board’s unhappiness also stems from her comments in the media recently.

Mapetla had said that when she took over at the EAAB she was shocked at how “chummy chummy” it had been with the industry players, saying it allowed “the big boys to tell you how to govern the industry”.

One prominent agent, who is also under investigation, spoke yesterday of their fury at Mapetla’s assertions that the industry was “too white”.

Mapetla took up the post six years ago and has been vocal about protecting consumers’ interests. She had instituted a whistle-blowers mechanism, finally giving a voice to buyers who felt aggrieved.

Insiders said it was no secret that Mapetla had been under “huge pressure” and had been told she was being “over-zealous”.

The Lew Geffen agency is the latest big name to come under the spotlight after a whistleblower claimed misconduct regarding the handling of trust accounts.

But Geffen yesterday said that although he was unaware of the pending investigation, the EAAB “is more than welcome to come and investigate us”.

An insider in the EAAB said: “We still have to send them (Lew Geffen) a letter saying we will investigate. What normally happens is we send detailed questions to the agency we consider investigating and once we receive their reply, depending on those answers, an official investigation is launched.”

An insider who knows Mapetla well said she would fight the suspension “tooth and nail”.

Another agent, who asked not to be named, said yesterday: “The industry is buzzing because of recent comments Mapetla made about the industry being too white. Everyone feels this is not the right approach for a CEO and it has caused a lot of unease.”

Geffen said that under Mapetla the EAAB “has made it impossible for new agents to enter the market”.

Geffen said this was because of Mapetla’s insistence that all agents have recognised qualifications.

“Very few people are coming in simply because the exams are too hard . it’s made it impossible for black, white, pink or yellow to enter.”

Bolani, meanwhile, would yesterday only confirm that Mapetla was on special leave.

“Other than that, I cannot say anything,” Bolani said.

Recent economic data releases strongly suggest that South Africa's GDP growth accelerated towards 4% quarter-on-quarter (annualized) in the final quarter of 2010, the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) said on Thursday.

The more upbeat data followed a loss of growth momentum in mid-2010 when the economy expanded by only 2.6% q-o-q in 2010Q3, te BER said in its Economic Prospects for thre 1st Quarter report.

It added that growth of 4% in Q4 would result in the economy expanding by 2.7% for 2010 as a whole following the contraction of 1.7% recorded in 2009.

"Importantly, the growth recovery to date has not been broad-based with robust consumer spending providing most of the impetus, while fixed investment remains poor, albeit slowly gaining traction."

Despite sovereign (especially European) debt concerns and rising fears about a build-up of especially emerging market inflationary pressures, global economic prospects had also improved, the BER said. In its January 2011 World Economic Outlook update, the IMF had raised the 2011 world growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points (% pts) to 4.4%. The IMF's upward revision was mainly because of a more favourable US growth outlook after the extension of tax cuts that would have expired at the end of 2010.

For 2011, the BER has made an upward revision to the SA GDP growth forecast of 0.4% pts to 3.8%.

"The improved outlook stems mainly from a more optimistic projection of household consumption expenditure (4.3% versus 3.7% expected in October 2010). The result is that gross domestic expenditure (GDE), the broadest measure of domestic spending that includes fixed investment, government expenditure and inventory investment, accelerates to growth of 4.8% during 2011 from a projected 4.3% in 2010," the BER said.

"GDP growth is expected to remain just below 4% at 3.9% for 2012, a marginal upward adjustment from the 3.7% expected previously. Consumer spending growth is set for a further marginal acceleration in 2012, while one should also start to see private business fixed investment picking up at a faster pace.

"The improved GDP performance should be accompanied by employment growth, but with output growth projected to remain below 4%, only modest employment gains are expected. After 322,000 formal non-agricultural sector jobs were lost in 2009/10, the BER forecast that only 267,000 formal sector jobs will be created in 2011/12. This means that even at the end of 2012, the level of employment will still be below the peak reached during 2008.

"Nevertheless, the projected employment gains - along with sustained strong wage increases and the further roll-out of government's social grant programme - are expected to be the key drivers of real disposable income and consumer spending," the BER added.

It noted that SA consumer price inflation (CPI) remained well within the SARB's 3% to 6% target band, albeit that the general price level was slowly rising. After reaching a low of 3.2% y-o-y in September 2010, CPI accelerated to 3.7% y-o-y during January 2011. Going forward, the SA inflation environment was expected to be less benign as the low base in 2010, the impact of a projected weaker rand exchange rate and (importantly) higher commodity prices fed into local price pressures.

"The adverse consequences of the higher oil price have already been felt - the local petrol price has increased by 92c/litre (or 11.4%) since September 2010 with another hefty rise of around 30c/litre on the cards for March. Food price pressure is set to build through 2011.

"Although we are cognisant of all the risk factors, the BER expects consumer inflation to remain well contained during the first half of 2011 at a projected average of 4% against 3.5% during 2010Q4. Price pressures are set to build in the second half with CPI expected to end 2011 just below the 6% mark, giving a CPI average for 2011 of 4.7%.

The forecast incorporates a food price gain of only 2.4% for the year - the growing risk is that the outcome could be substantially higher. The forecast was completed before the January CPI figures were released, which showed that food prices rose much faster than expected in the early stages of 2011.

The implication of higher than expected food prices is that we could see CPI breach the 6% upper inflation target limit before the end of 2011."

Looking towards 2012, the BER said, higher economy wide capacity utilisation rates, multiple years of double digit electricity price rises and continued projected robust wage increases might result in a further acceleration in price pressures as second round effects took hold. CPI was forecast to average 5.7% during 2012.

According to the BER, the combination of a rising inflation profile, the recent weakening of the rand exchange rate versus the US dollar and strong consumer spending argues against a further reduction in the repo interest rate.

"In fact, the financial markets have been fairly aggressive of late in pricing in an interest rate increase before the end of 2011. While the central bank is likely to hold off on raising the interest rate for as long as possible, the BER forecasts a first 50bps rate hike in November 2011, to be followed by another 100bps (2 X 50bps) worth of rate hikes during the first quarter of 2012. These increases will take the repo rate to 7% and the prime lending rate to 10.5%," the BER said.

It noted that the rand exchange rate significantly had outperformed its peer currencies in December 2010, but had subsequently weakened sharply so far in 2011.

"Since the start of the year, the rand has not only underperformed versus comparable currencies such as the Australian dollar and Brazilian real, but is also one of the worst performing currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Furthermore, the losses have not been limited to only against the US dollar - the rand is down 10% versus a basket of currencies of SA's major trading partners in the year to date.

"Looking forward, we do not expect the rand to continue to weaken at the same pace as seen since the start of the year. A number of factors, including low developed country interest rates and high commodity prices, should continue to support the local unit.

"The rand is expected to end 2011 around current levels of R7.30/$. We see more pronounced weakness setting in during 2012 once countries such as the US start to increase interest rates, which may result in a more aggressive global portfolio realignment back to developed countries.

"The BER's updated forecast is for the rand to average R7.78/$ in 2012Q4. Against the Euro, the rand is projected to average R9.36 and R9.86 respectively in 2011Q4 and 2012Q4.

Given that the currency is currently trading at just below R10/€, the latter forecasts seem quite optimistic. The view on the rand/Euro is premised on the fact that the US dollar is expected to strengthen back towards $1.30/Euro by 2011Q4 from the current $1.36.

If the dollar remains around current levels versus the Euro, the rand is set to end the year above R10/Euro.

Wholesale trade sales at constant (2000) prices for December grew 5.6% year-on-year (y/y) after a revised 8.3% y/y (8.1%) in November, Statistics South Africa data showed on Thursday.

For 2010 as a whole, wholesale trade sales were up 2.2% y/y compared with 2009.

Stats SA added that wholesale trade sales, at constant 2000 prices rose 4.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the fourth quarter of 2009, while sales for the same period in 2009 decreased by 9.6%.

Seasonally adjusted wholesale trade sales increased by 1.3% in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the third quarter of 2010.

In addition, Stats SA added that annual wholesale trade sales, at current prices, increased by 7.0% in 2010 compared with 2009, while sales increased by 10.4% year-on-year in December 2010.

Wholesale trade sales, at current prices, increased by 10.1% in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared with the fourth quarter of 2009. The major contributors to this increase were dealers in solid, liquid and gaseous fuels and related products (24.3% and contributing 4.4 percentage points) and dealers in food, beverages and tobacco (11.5% and contributing 2.0 percentage points).

As the target year of 2015 for the Millennium Development Goals approaches, there is increasing interest in, and concern over, whether Botswana, Malawi, Tanzania and SA will meet the minimum targets for social progress.

A review of progress towards the goals in four southern African countries has been undertaken by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), and among researchers in the field there is a wide range of opinions about the application of the goals to the African context.

While some feel that Africa is "being set up for failure" as the goal targets are too ambitious, others feel that more progress is being made than anticipated, as in the case of maternal mortality.

To add to this, governments find it difficult to acknowledge complications in progress towards the targets. The differing views beg a common approach and methodology rather than more intense debate.

The HSRC has been conducting research in this field, with the purpose of producing a research brief to engage SADC and governments in research initiatives to support regional initiatives to spur interventions to bring the goals to realisation in 2015.

The research brief captures key issues in improving the lives of people in southern Africa through implementing the Millennium Development Goals in these four countries.

The need for change, identified in progress towards key goals, is most urgent in southern Africa, but there are also the greatest opportunities for improvement.

"There is a mixture of hope and realism as the target date of 2015 approaches. If resources could be mobilised strategically in the region, much more progress could be made and the SADC instrument of the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan (RISDP) is explored to this end," said Dr David Hemson, of the democracy, governance and service delivery programme at the HSRC.

The research brief concluded that, in a number of targets, the Millennium Development Goals are being approached but that the pace of change in others is too slow. In a minority of targets no progress is being made.